MANY U.S. ARCHITECT OFFICES - GONE IN FIVE YEARS?
Today, most architects work in office buildings. However, many office buildings are closing down or being repurposed. Office building occupancies are dropping significantly. This is starting to look like an irreversible trend. Many office building owners are losing money, defaulting on mortgages for those office buildings, and some owners are going bankrupt. The costs of operations of office buildings and the costs to enterprises operating in office buildings are increasing to possibly unsustainable levels when compared to the increasingly constrained levels of available income. Constrained income levels are being fed by gruesome global economics (aka internationally licensed architects of record for US projects), artificial intelligence, and soon to be by quantum computing and bio-tech advances such as Neurolink brain implants. The present and future outlooks for office buildings and their occupant enterprises do not look bright. In five years although many architect offices may still be located in office buildings, many other architect offices may have collapsed, like retail, either into being located online, or working in some other method than by utilizing office buildings. How many architect offices remain in office buildings five years from now appears to be a matter of gloomy conjecture.
Watch the following video made by Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder, Archline.com, LLC, explain how architectural professional services increasingly is being offered to architect enterprises in the 21st Century and doing it without offices:
The following is a set of permit ready architectural working drawings on a big multiuse multifamily project produced for the architect of record by Archline.com, LLC (be patient - this is a big file - over 200 sheets of drawings - takes a couple of minutes to load):
The following is a copy of a conversation between ChatGPT
& Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder of Archline.com, LLC
Traylor said:
Remote work appears to be competing more and more with work housed in office buildings. Will many architect offices collapse into temporary online business enterprises, mobilized instantaneously as needed to produce work on specific projects and liquidated when work on those projects is completed?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, the growing dominance of remote work will significantly shift the structure of long-term enterprises toward more fluid, project-based strategic ventures. This shift will be driven by several factors:
- Cost
Efficiency: Traditional enterprises maintain long-term overhead costs for
office space, salaries, and infrastructure. Project-based ventures allow companies to minimize these costs by assembling temporary teams only
when necessary.
- Access to
Global Talent: Remote work has already expanded the talent pool beyond
local boundaries. Temporary, project-specific teams are built with the
best available experts worldwide, enabling higher efficiency and
innovation.
- Flexibility and
Agility: The dynamic nature of markets increasingly demands rapid
adaptability. Liquidating teams and resources at the end of each project
allows businesses to pivot more effectively.
- Technology-Driven
Collaboration: AI, cloud platforms, and collaboration tools make it easier
than ever to mobilize virtual teams. Project management software and
AI-driven resource allocation enhances and enhance the effectiveness of on-demand
project organizations.
This paradigm shift is well suited to industries driven by creativity, innovation, and knowledge work—such as architecture, engineering, and software development—where highly specialized teams are assembled as needed. Platforms for orchestrating such ventures are similar to how Uber and Airbnb have disrupted their respective sectors, but for professional services.
Traylor said:
I think what you are describing allows lone wolf deal makers to compete with and possibly even to displace large enterprises. Big companies will largely become obsolete if I am not mistaken. What do you think?
ChatGPT said:
Yes, your
observation is insightful, and you are correct—this shift already is and will increasingly empower lone wolf dealmakers to compete with and to displace
large enterprises. Like water seeking its own level, the economy, seeking the paths of least resistance, is and increasingly will evolve to favor project-by-project strategic
ventures. Several dynamics will undermine the dominance of traditional,
hierarchical corporations. Here's how and why that will happen:
1. Decentralization of Power and
Influence
- Access to
Technology: Tools that enable collaboration, project management, and
AI-driven automation are competively affordable and accessible.
Lone entrepreneurs or small teams coordinate global talent and
resources without requiring vast corporate infrastructures.
- Network Effect:
Dealmakers who build strong networks of specialists and resources can
rapidly assemble bespoke teams for specific projects, giving them agility
and competitive pricing that traditional firms with higher fixed costs
cannot match.
2. Reduced Barriers to Market
Entry
- Democratization
of Expertise: Remote work allows highly skilled professionals to freelance
and form temporary alliances. This undermines the exclusive control large
firms once had over specialized labor pools.
- Lower Startup
Costs: Digital platforms reduce upfront capital requirements, making it
feasible for small operators to scale rapidly by contracting services
rather than owning expensive assets.
3. Hyper-Specialization and
On-Demand Resources
- Specialist
Teams vs. Monolithic Firms: Large enterprises are less efficient due
to bureaucratic processes and legacy structures. Lone wolf operators customize teams for each project, drawing from a global talent pool to
maximize expertise and innovation for every task.
- No Long-Term
Overhead: By liquidating resources after project completion, lone wolves
remain lean, while large enterprises are burdened by permanent staffing
and fixed costs.
4. Market Disruption
- Client-Centric
Flexibility: Clients increasingly prefer custom, flexible solutions over
standardized offerings. Dealmakers who rapidly design tailored
solutions are more attractive than rigid, one-size-fits-all
corporations.
- Disaggregation
of Corporate Functions: Functions traditionally handled internally (e.g.,
marketing, legal, IT) are outsourced or automated. This
fragmentation erodes the necessity of large, vertically integrated
firms.
Implications for Large Enterprises
- Obsolescence
Risks: As they fail to adapt to a project-based economy, large companies will become too slow, costly, and disconnected from market realities.
- Transformation Opportunity: To survive, big companies must adopt hybrid models, becoming platform-based orchestrators that connect independent professionals rather than employing large in-house teams. That adoption probably will not happen fast enough for most conventionally managed companies, resulting in widespread losses of business, possibly even insolvency or outright bankruptcy.
In summary, the forces driving the rise of lone wolf dealmakers will make large enterprises less relevant unless they pivot toward more flexible,
decentralized business models. However, this will require a fundamental shift
in how they manage talent, partnerships, and value creation. It’s a revolution that mirrors the gig economy's disruption of traditional employment
but applied to the upper echelons of professional services and industry.
This ends the Chatgpt conversation. What follows are links to a number of
related online periodical articles on this subject:
ARCHITECT MAGAZINE: Has Remote Work Changed the Architecture Profession for Good?
NPR: A Lot of Offices are Still Empty — and it's Becoming a Major
Risk for the Economy
CREDAILY: $38B Worth of US Office Buildings Face Historic Defaults
· REUTERS: US Office Occupancy Faces 'Black Hole' of Remote Work, says
Green Street
· TIME
DOCTOR: Remote work’s impact: Morgan Stanley reports 30% price drop
in US office buildings
· WIKIPEDIA: 2020s Commercial Real Estate Distress
Constraints on
distance are disappearing. Many architects are increasingly working
online. Office buildings are
no longer necessarily the best way for architect offices to work.
· BETTERPROS: How to Create a Culture of Collaboration for Remote
Architects
· STEADFAST SOLUTIONS: Effective Remote Collaboration Strategies for Architecture
Design Managers
Bottom line? I believe this is shaping up to become the largest exchange of wealth in the AE professions since before the dawn of the Industrial Revolution.
Archline.com, LLC is
a Dallas, Texas based international wide area network of architects who
collaborate together online to provide professional services to other U.S.
based architects, and has been doing this type of work for 25 years, over 1,000
completed assignments from the smallest to the largest projects in over half
the states in the US and overseas for over 150 firms, working in metric and
Imperial measure and several languages.
Find out more about
working in this manner. Call (214) 304-2850 or email archline@archline.com. You'll be glad you did.
Best
regards.
Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder
Archline.com,
LLC
5050
Quorum Drive, Suite 700
Dallas,
Texas 75254 USA
Voice:
(214) 304-2850
Cell:
(808) 747-4460
Email: archline@archline.com
Website: www.archline.com
Charles
Traylor Linkedin Profile
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