MANY U.S. ARCHITECT OFFICES - GONE IN FIVE YEARS?

Today, most architects work in office buildings. However, many office buildings are closing down or being repurposed. Office building occupancies are dropping significantly. This is starting to look like an irreversible trend. Many office building owners are losing money, defaulting on mortgages for those office buildings, and some owners are going bankrupt. The costs of operations of office buildings and the costs to enterprises operating in office buildings are increasing to possibly unsustainable levels when compared to the increasingly constrained levels of available income. Constrained income levels are being fed by gruesome global economics (aka internationally licensed architects of record for US projects), artificial intelligence, and soon to be by quantum computing and bio-tech advances such as Neurolink brain implants. The present and future outlooks for office buildings and their occupant enterprises do not look bright. In five years although many architect offices may still be located in office buildings, many other architect offices may have collapsed, like retail, either into being located online, or working in some other method than by utilizing office buildings. How many architect offices remain in office buildings five years from now appears to be a matter of gloomy conjecture. 

Watch the following video made by Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder, Archline.com, LLC, explain how architectural professional services increasingly is being offered to architect enterprises in the 21st Century and doing it without offices:

WORKING BIG WITHOUT OFFICES

The following is a set of permit ready architectural working drawings on a big multiuse multifamily project produced for the architect of record by Archline.com, LLC (be patient - this is a big file - over 200 sheets of drawings - takes a couple of minutes to load):


CITY CENTER

The following is a copy of a conversation between ChatGPT & Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder of Archline.com, LLC

Traylor said:

Remote work appears to be competing more and more with work housed in office buildings. Will  many architect offices collapse into temporary online business enterprises, mobilized instantaneously as needed to produce work on specific projects and liquidated when work on those projects is completed?

 ChatGPT said:

Yes, the growing dominance of remote work will significantly shift the structure of long-term enterprises toward more fluid, project-based strategic ventures. This shift will be driven by several factors:

  1. Cost Efficiency: Traditional enterprises maintain long-term overhead costs for office space, salaries, and infrastructure. Project-based ventures allow companies to minimize these costs by assembling temporary teams only when necessary.
  2. Access to Global Talent: Remote work has already expanded the talent pool beyond local boundaries. Temporary, project-specific teams are built with the best available experts worldwide, enabling higher efficiency and innovation.
  3. Flexibility and Agility: The dynamic nature of markets increasingly demands rapid adaptability. Liquidating teams and resources at the end of each project allows businesses to pivot more effectively.
  4. Technology-Driven Collaboration: AI, cloud platforms, and collaboration tools make it easier than ever to mobilize virtual teams. Project management software and AI-driven resource allocation enhances and enhance the effectiveness of on-demand project organizations.

This paradigm shift is well suited to industries driven by creativity, innovation, and knowledge work—such as architecture, engineering, and software development—where highly specialized teams are assembled as needed. Platforms for orchestrating such ventures are similar to how Uber and Airbnb have disrupted their respective sectors, but for professional services. 

Traylor said:

I think what you are describing allows lone wolf deal makers to compete with and possibly even to displace large enterprises. Big companies will largely become obsolete if I am not mistaken. What do you think?

ChatGPT said: 

Yes, your observation is insightful, and you are correct—this shift already is and will increasingly empower lone wolf dealmakers to compete with and to displace large enterprises. Like water seeking its own level, the economy, seeking the paths of least resistance, is and increasingly will evolve to favor project-by-project strategic ventures. Several dynamics will undermine the dominance of traditional, hierarchical corporations. Here's how and why that will happen:

1. Decentralization of Power and Influence

  • Access to Technology: Tools that enable collaboration, project management, and AI-driven automation are competively affordable and accessible. Lone entrepreneurs or small teams coordinate global talent and resources without requiring vast corporate infrastructures.
  • Network Effect: Dealmakers who build strong networks of specialists and resources can rapidly assemble bespoke teams for specific projects, giving them agility and competitive pricing that traditional firms with higher fixed costs cannot match.

2. Reduced Barriers to Market Entry

  • Democratization of Expertise: Remote work allows highly skilled professionals to freelance and form temporary alliances. This undermines the exclusive control large firms once had over specialized labor pools.
  • Lower Startup Costs: Digital platforms reduce upfront capital requirements, making it feasible for small operators to scale rapidly by contracting services rather than owning expensive assets.

3. Hyper-Specialization and On-Demand Resources

  • Specialist Teams vs. Monolithic Firms: Large enterprises are less efficient due to bureaucratic processes and legacy structures. Lone wolf operators customize teams for each project, drawing from a global talent pool to maximize expertise and innovation for every task.
  • No Long-Term Overhead: By liquidating resources after project completion, lone wolves remain lean, while large enterprises are burdened by permanent staffing and fixed costs.

4. Market Disruption

  • Client-Centric Flexibility: Clients increasingly prefer custom, flexible solutions over standardized offerings. Dealmakers who rapidly design tailored solutions are more attractive than rigid, one-size-fits-all corporations.
  • Disaggregation of Corporate Functions: Functions traditionally handled internally (e.g., marketing, legal, IT) are outsourced or automated. This fragmentation erodes the necessity of large, vertically integrated firms.

Implications for Large Enterprises

  1. Obsolescence Risks: As they fail to adapt to a project-based economy, large companies will become too slow, costly, and disconnected from market realities.
  2. Transformation Opportunity: To survive, big companies must adopt hybrid models, becoming platform-based orchestrators that connect independent professionals rather than employing large in-house teams. That adoption probably will not happen fast enough for most conventionally managed companies, resulting in widespread losses of business, possibly even insolvency or outright bankruptcy. 

In summary, the forces driving the rise of lone wolf dealmakers will make large enterprises less relevant unless they pivot toward more flexible, decentralized business models. However, this will require a fundamental shift in how they manage talent, partnerships, and value creation. It’s a revolution that mirrors the gig economy's disruption of traditional employment but applied to the upper echelons of professional services and industry.

This ends the Chatgpt conversation. What follows are links to a number of related online periodical articles on this subject:

ARCHITECT MAGAZINE: Has Remote Work Changed the Architecture Profession for Good?

NPR: A Lot of Offices are Still Empty — and it's Becoming a Major Risk for the Economy

CREDAILY: $38B Worth of US Office Buildings Face Historic Defaults

·     REUTERS: US Office Occupancy Faces 'Black Hole' of Remote Work, says Green Street

·     TIME DOCTOR: Remote work’s impact: Morgan Stanley reports 30% price drop in US office buildings

·     WIKIPEDIA: 2020s Commercial Real Estate Distress

Constraints on distance are disappearing. Many architects are increasingly working online.  Office buildings are no longer necessarily the best way for architect offices to work.

·     BETTERPROS: How to Create a Culture of Collaboration for Remote Architects

·     STEADFAST SOLUTIONS: Effective Remote Collaboration Strategies for Architecture Design Managers

Bottom line? I believe this is shaping up to become the largest exchange of wealth in the AE professions since before the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. 

Archline.com, LLC is a Dallas, Texas based international wide area network of architects who collaborate together online to provide professional services to other U.S. based architects, and has been doing this type of work for 25 years, over 1,000 completed assignments from the smallest to the largest projects in over half the states in the US and overseas for over 150 firms, working in metric and Imperial measure and several languages.

Find out more about working in this manner. Call (214) 304-2850 or email archline@archline.com. You'll be glad you did. 

Best regards.

Charles Traylor, Architect, NCARB, CEO and Founder

Archline.com, LLC

5050 Quorum Drive, Suite 700

Dallas, Texas 75254 USA

Voice: (214) 304-2850

Cell: (808) 747-4460

Email: archline@archline.com

Website: www.archline.com

Charles Traylor Linkedin Profile

 

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